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Handicapping the GOP field for 2012


    

Sarah Palin will get a bounce from the media blitz surrounding her new book, but she doesn't crack the Top 15 in Boston Phoenix political writer David Bernstein's handicapping of the 2012 Republican field for president. Palin places 16th, behind such notables as former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (11th); former Florida governor Jeb Bush (14th) and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee (15th).

Here's Bernstein's Top 10 (figures in parentheses reflect previous rankings):

1) Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota. Launched his

Leadership PAC -- "Freedom First" -- with lots of inside-the-beltway support, along with blatant nods to the Tea Party set (guest speakers Jon Voight and Cliff from Cheers!). All systems go. (1)

2) Mike Pence, US Representative from Indiana. If someone's going to win the nomination without help from the elites and insiders, it's likely to be Pence. He's a huge favorite among the talk-radio and blogosphere crowd, and has been steadily upping his profile. He has as good a chance as anyone to win nearby Iowa (better than Southerners like DeMint), create a two-person race with the "establishment" candidate (Pawlenty, Thune, Romney, or whoever), and then let his allies on the right loudly destroy that opponent. (3)

3) John Thune, US Senator from South Dakota. Thune is getting a lot of Presidential buzz, from outside of conservative circles. That's exactly what he needs: he has lots of conservative bona fides, so he needs the David Brooks crowd to be touting him. (4)

4) Jim DeMint, US Senator from South Carolina. I'm dropping DeMint, because I just don't see him doing anything to convince the elites and insiders. His cred among the movement conservatives is already beyond reproach -- and he adds to it almost every day, by endorsing every right-winger challenging a relative moderate Republican. But I'm not seeing him build a path to the nomination. (2)

5) Mitt Romney, former Governor from Massachusetts. Romney appears to be pursuing -- wisely, in my opinion -- a "blue state" strategy. That is, give up on winning southern and midwestern Republican primaries, and instead capture the nomination by winning primaries in the northeast, the industrial north, the west coast, the southwest, and maybe Florida. Hence helping Christie win New Jersey was a big deal to him -- as was not pissing off New York Republican committee members like the Scozzafava-bashing Pawlentys and DeMints. But is it possible to win the Republican nomination without winning any delegates South of the Mason-Dixon line? (5)

6) Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi. Imagine, it could have been Republican Governors Association chairman Mark Sanford taking credit for the NJ and VA victories, boosting his status among the GOP insiders and elites as their potential conservative-movement-friendly 2012 horse. Alas, it was not to be; Barbour inherited the job and finds himself on everybody's list of 2012 possibilities. (7)

7) Rick Perry, Governor of Texas. Polls continue to show him in good shape to beat back the Kay Bailey Hutchison intraparty re-election challenge. Nobody (other than me) seems to be speculating that Perry's likely to jump into the Presidential scrum immediately after winning a new term (if he does) -- but of course he's not going to be spreading those rumors in the middle of a re-election campaign. I can't imagine why he wouldn't run. (6)

8) Mitch Daniels, Governor of Indiana. Unlike Perry, Daniels gets himself mentioned in every single article written anywhere about potential 2012 GOP candidates. Funny, because he said he's not going to run.... (9)

9) Jon Kyl, US Senator from Arizona. After US News & World Report  put him on a list of conservatives looking to run, Kyl emphatically insisted that he would absolutely, positively not. It's good to get that first denial under your belt. (11)

10) Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana. When does he schedule his national relaunch? I'm still skeptical that he'll run in '12, but there's certainly room for him. (8)

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