Lincoln Chafee had left the Wild Colonial by the time I got over there last night after covering the House. But the consensus of people we spoke with echoes Matt Jerzyk's view -- that the independent gubernatorial hopeful's Drinking Liberally performance was so underwhelming that it raises questions about his appeal as a candidate.
Keeping in mind that November 2010 is just over a year away, and that a lot can change between now and then, here are five central questions facing Chafee and his gubernatorial campaign:
1.) Will Chafee's ability to offer principled leadership trump his bouts of namby-pambyism?
As I wrote in 2006, Chafee was uninspired during significant parts of a key televised debate with GOP Senate rival Steve Laffey
It’s no wonder that Laffey occasionally laughed while parrying, as if he could not believe his good fortune. Chafee, indeed, sounded feckless at times, reading from notes about what constitutes a just war and trying to make an issue of how an image of a Laffey critic was digitally wiped from the candidate’s Web site.
Again, one could only wonder why Chafee didn’t turn his stylistic flaws to his advantage by saying, for example, “I may not speak as quickly as the mayor, but it took guts to be the only Senate Republican to vote against the war in Iraq. I take no satisfaction in how my worst fears have been realized.”
Chafee, who basically inherited his Senate seat from his revered father, still benefits from the best brand name in Rhode Island politics and goodwill for having been turned out of office amid the Democratic triumph of 2006. But it will prove politically damaging if he hands more ammunition to the critics who perceive him as being weak and indecisive.
2.) Will Chafee's campaign team have what it takes?
Jim DeRentis, the leader of Chafee's exploratory effort, although respected for his intellect and civic engagement, is not a veteran when it comes to running political campaigns. Attorney General Patrick Lynch recently shook up what some had seen as a lethargic campaign effort by hiring Mike Mikus. Tad Devine certainly knows his stuff. But it remains to be seen who else will be helming the Chafee ship.
3.) Does mutual Democratic destruction elevate Chafee?
Chafee won his Senate seat in 2000 thanks in large part to the mutual assured destruction that played out between Democrats Richard Licht and Robert Weygand. So to what extent will a Democratic primary between Lynch and General Treasurer Frank Caprio work to Chafee's advantage? Will it be enough to overcome Chafee's own shortcomings as a candidate?
4.) Which candidate will put Rhode Island back to work?
Bill Clinton won office in 1992 thanks to the message of "It's the economy, stupid." Similarly, Rhode Island's next governor may well be the candidate who makes the most persuasive case that he has a pragmatic plan for creating jobs and growing the economy.
5.) Does Chafee have the hunger to be governor?
The trash talk has already started between former collegiate athletes Caprio and Lynch, and despite whatever damage they may inflict on one another during a primary, few would doubt their competitive chops or desire to be governor.
Chafee has had a long and mostly successful career in politics, but he seems less wedded to it; Can you imagine either of the Dems shoeing horses in Montana and Canada for a number of years? So the extent to which he musters some competitive zeal will be an X factor in the race.
